Research Correlation Report
title: Domestic Violence vs Space Weather — Robustness Analysis (Null Result) date: 2026-07-18 tags: data, results, methodology, robustness, null-result, behavior status: completed
Analysis Complete — No Credible Relationship
This report presents a full robustness analysis of domestic-violence-related Google Trends data vs space-weather variables over 4,152 consecutive days (2015-01-01 to 2026-07-15). 27 of 427 hypotheses were nominally FDR-significant — but all fail robustness testing. Verdict: null result.
Dataset & Collection Process
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Query | domestic violence |
| Category | behavior |
| Date range | 2015-01-01 to 2026-07-15 |
| Total days | 4,152 |
| Missing values | 0 |
Space-Weather Variables
| Variable | Source | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Kp | NOAA SWPC | 3-hourly to daily mean |
| Ap | NOAA SWPC | 3-hourly to daily |
| Dst | WDC Kyoto | hourly to daily mean |
| Solar wind speed | NASA OMNI | hourly to daily mean |
| IMF B (average) | NASA OMNI | hourly to daily mean |
| F10.7 solar flux | NOAA | daily |
| Sunspot number | SILSO | daily |
Preprocessing
- STL detrending (365-day, robust), lags -30 to +30
- 427 hypotheses tested; 27 FDR-significant (first keyword to pass FDR!)
- Robustness battery: block bootstrap, first-difference detrending, subperiod stability, yearly aggregation, placebo test
Top Correlations (STL-detrended)
| Variable | Max |r| | Lag | Pearson r | FDR p | Sig | |----------|---------|-----|-----------|-------|-----| | Kp | 0.0421 | -15 | -0.0421 | 0.073 | NO | | Ap | 0.0368 | +14 | -0.0368 | 0.145 | NO | | Dst | 0.0369 | +14 | +0.0369 | 0.144 | NO | | Solar wind speed | 0.0587 | -15 | -0.0587 | 0.019 | YES | | IMF B | 0.0390 | -15 | -0.0390 | 0.115 | NO | | F10.7 flux | 0.0606 | -30 | +0.0606 | 0.019 | YES | | Sunspot number | 0.0582 | +22 | +0.0582 | 0.019 | YES |
Three variables FDR-significant — but |r| < 0.061. Effect is indistinguishable from zero practically.
Robustness — Block Bootstrap (500 iter, block=30)
| Variable | Real r | Bootstrap p | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kp | -0.0313 | 0.122 | NO |
| Ap | -0.0292 | 0.148 | NO |
| Dst | +0.0294 | 0.136 | NO |
| Solar wind speed | -0.0316 | 0.096 | NO |
| IMF B | -0.0386 | 0.038 | YES |
| F10.7 flux | +0.0137 | 0.804 | NO |
| Sunspot number | +0.0337 | 0.466 | NO |
Only IMF B survives — the three FDR-significant variables all fail. 1/7 bootstrap pass.
Subperiod Sign Stability
| Subperiod | r_sunspot |
|---|---|
| 2015-01 to 2018-12 | -0.017 |
| 2018-12 to 2022-09 | +0.009 |
| 2022-09 to 2026-07 | +0.051 |
Sign flips — not stable across time.
Yearly Correlation
Yearly r (sunspot) = +0.089, p = 0.78 — completely null at yearly level.
Placebo Test
Sunspot: min placebo p = 0.160 (100 random shifts) — not significant.
Conclusion
The initial FDR screen returned 27/427 significant (sw_speed, f107, r_sunspot) — the first keyword to achieve this in our pipeline. However: |r| < 0.07 for all variables, block bootstrap fails for all three FDR-significant variables, sign is unstable across subperiods, and placebo test is not passed. The signal does not survive robustness checks. Verdict: NULL RESULT.
Report generated: 2026-07-18. Period: 2015-01-01 to 2026-07-15. Status: completed.
In Plain English
We checked if Google searches for "domestic violence" are linked to space weather. At first, 27 out of 427 tests looked promising — solar wind, solar flux, and sunspots showed tiny correlations. But tougher checks (block bootstrap, time splitting, placebo shuffling) killed every one. Domestic violence Google searches are not influenced by space weather.